As Iran continues to move forward with its nuclear program, and that the attempts of diplomacy has given way to more aggressive rhetoric, the spectrum of economic sanctions re-emerged on the international theater's main stage. Unlike previous sanctions, however, the current U.S. proposal that circulating among members of the UN Security Council reportedly to call for the outright ban on certain transactions between the UN and the countries of the Islamic Republic, in an attempt to more precisely target the banking, insurance and shipping sectors podkontrolu Islamic revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG ).
the debate rages on, however, on how effectively a new list of sanctions will be stopped or even to deter Iran's uranium enrichment efforts. While most of the Western powers coming in favor of the proposed sanctions, supported by Russia and China are still critical. It is no coincidence, both tentatively, veto-wielding countries also have significant economic interests in Iran borders.
hearing may be wrapped in political discourse, but there is no doubt driven by the economy. And while experts and policy makers can continue to disagree over the capacity of sanctions lead to real political change, the only way to undertake cost-benefit analysis of potential economic sanctions from the bottom, with detailed excavation of Iranian trade climate and trade relations governing it.
Iran Trade Landscape
With a full 10% of the world's known reserves of oil within its vast borders, Iran's economy revolves, not surprisingly, about energy. In 2007, the Iranian government pulled in $ 57 billion in oil export revenue, which comprises about half of all state revenues. Oil currently comprises about 80% of Iranian exports.
under the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, however, the country's domestic economy staggered under the weight of massive state subsidies, rising unemployment and double digit inflation levels. Without the proper infrastructure to refine their massive supply of crude oil, the country was forced to import gasoline. According to a recent Reuters report, Iran imports 23% more gasoline in February 2010 than the same month last year.
under the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, however, the country's domestic economy staggered under the weight of massive state subsidies, rising unemployment and double digit inflation levels.
Russian Insecurity
Russo-Iranian trade stems primarily from a similar abundance of natural gas. The two countries have the two largest natural gas reserves in the world and have developed strong economic relations in an effort to capitalize on the talent. In October 2008, Russia, Iran and Qatar collectively make up a full 40% of world natural gas reserves, has entered into formal agreement strengthening their energy related economic bonds. In addition to their energy related efforts, Russia and Iran have, since 2008, expanded its trade in agriculture, telecommunications, and aviation.
Although the Russian government officially supports each of the previous three rounds of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, it is open to assist the Islamic Republic develop a nuclear power plant in Bushehr, and will reportedly be completed in 2011. After vehemently arguing against bringing economic sanctions in the Security Council debate in 2005, Russia voted in favor of immediate measures in 2006. Once again, Russian diplomats have expressed dissatisfaction with the current proposal, while acknowledging the danger that a nuclear Iran could present.
The most contentious issue surrounding the Russian-Iranian relations and on the upcoming delivery of air defense missile systems to Iran, which are guaranteed 2005 contract signed between Tehran and the Russian state-owned Rosoboron export agency. Agreement was reached with derision from Western leaders, who argue that Russia is giving Iran an incentive only safety net should continue enriching uranium.
He was also a significant concern expressed by Russia and Iran are relatively blatant exchange of scientific knowledge. For years, Iran was a Russian and Ukrainian scientists have free entry into the country through what policy experts call "underground tunnel" dubious visas. Unlike other commodities traded across borders Russia and Iran, it is almost impossible to estimate the true value of this exchange of knowledge, although the 2009 CIA report strongly argues that the assistance of Russian experts were "helped Iran move toward self-sufficiency in the production of ballistic missiles"
Chinese Enigma
Although the EU has long been Iran's largest trading partner, accounting for more than $ 35 billion total trade in 2008, China is poised to overtake the Europeans, if not already. According to the February article in the Financial Times, China May was officially amounted to just $ 29 billion of Iran 2008 trade, but the actual figure is probably much higher, since a significant part of the Iranian-Chinese trade flows are funneled through the UAE. When these items are taken into account, experts estimate the grand total value of trade flows to be at least $ 36.5 billion.
The most critical diplomatic negotiations, although they are supposedly Chinese sales of missile technology in the Islamic Republic. China, like Russia, has a long history of arms trade with Iran, dating to the 1979 Islamic revolution. The ability of Chinese scientists to reverse engineer the military technology has allowed them to reproduce the old Soviet missile technology and funnel end products in Iran. Just last year, the investigative report to the AP office in Taipei showed that Chinese traders have been successfully delivered over 100 pressure transducers in Iran, developed over the supply chain, which masked the end of the destination device. According to nuclear experts, the only logical explanation for the purchase of land that many guides at one time will be used to enrich uranium aktivnosti.Kineska government claims that they knew nothing about the illegal trade, but many have read his defense, as a veil, a diplomatic effort to avoid ruffling Iran feathers.
For now, therefore, the fate of a new round of economic sanctions and on, and ironically, depends on the support of Iran's two most prominent trading partners. Furthermore, while a set of sanctions is currently considering it will not directly affect the Iranian energy sector, it is clear that the complexity of its political economy goes far beyond oil. In the diplomatic climate in which words are reverses the action, in which the economic data, on its own, only tell part of the story, is separated from profit-seeking political behavior has become almost impossible task.
It's too early to say whether politics or economics will ultimately decide the direction of the international community has with Iran. However, judging by the deep-rooted trade relations with the Islamic Republic enjoys two very important world power, coming at a global consensus can only be part of the equation. At the end of the day, holding an Iranian trading partners accountable to their words may prove even more difficult.
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